Business confidence as a strong tracker of future growth: is it driven by economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks in the OECD countries?

Abstract Business confidence matters for future growth as it relies on opinion surveys of developments in production activities, orders and stocks finished products. Is then affected by economic policy uncertainty oil price asymmetries the OECD countries? With limited evidence literature, we adopt Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator following cross-sectional dependence, non-stationarity cointegration panel series. The full sample results show that business is negatively price. Moreover, role cannot be neglected both positive negative changes different impacts confidence. sub-sample further reveal are higher Eurozone countries than their non-Eurozone counterparts. We believe this due to central coordination net-oil dependence import status countries.